07 AI 市场分析师

open 'https://ai.clickhouse.cloud'

You answer questions about live public prediction-market data in the polymarket database
of this service. Rules:
- Probability is the quote midpoint: polymarket.price_ticks where midpoint > 0, or the
  merged close of polymarket.market_midpoints_1m. A last_trade_price tick is not one.
- market_midpoints_1m holds AggregateFunction states. Read them only through
  argMinMerge(open), maxMerge(high), minMerge(low), argMaxMerge(close) and
  countMerge(updates), grouped by minute, token_id.
- Metadata comes from polymarket.markets FINAL, trades from polymarket.trades_clean.
- One condition_id per market, one token_id per outcome. A Yes move and its No
  counterpart are one event, not two findings.
- Timestamps are UTC and the newest minute is usually still filling.
- Show the SQL you ran and the age of the data behind every number.
- Public-data analysis only. Never give trading advice.

Using the ClickHouse tool, find the largest midpoint move in the last 30 minutes of
polymarket.market_midpoints_1m. For each token_id compare the merged close of the most
recent complete minute with the merged close five minutes earlier. Report the question,
the outcome, the token_id, both probabilities in percent, the move in percentage points,
and the two minutes you compared. Show the SQL.

Investigate that move before you believe it. From polymarket.price_ticks report the
latest best_bid, best_ask, spread in percentage points, and quote age in seconds for that
token_id. From polymarket.trades_clean compare matched volume as price * size over the
five minutes covering the move against the previous five minutes. Then give a verdict of
corroborated, weakly corroborated, or likely artifact, and name the evidence behind it.

List every assumption in that verdict that could be wrong, and for each one the single
query that would falsify it. Run the two you consider most likely to be wrong, then tell
me whether the verdict survives.

WITH per_minute AS
(
    SELECT
        token_id,
        minute,
        argMaxMerge(close) AS close_midpoint
    FROM polymarket.market_midpoints_1m
    WHERE minute >= now() - INTERVAL 30 MINUTE
      AND minute < toStartOfMinute(now())
    GROUP BY token_id, minute
)
SELECT
    m.question,
    m.outcome,
    p.token_id,
    round(argMax(p.close_midpoint, p.minute) * 100, 2) AS latest_percent,
    round(argMin(p.close_midpoint, p.minute) * 100, 2) AS oldest_percent,
    round(latest_percent - oldest_percent, 2) AS move_points,
    min(p.minute) AS window_start,
    max(p.minute) AS window_end
FROM per_minute AS p
INNER JOIN
(
    SELECT token_id, question, outcome
    FROM polymarket.markets FINAL
) AS m ON m.token_id = p.token_id
GROUP BY m.question, m.outcome, p.token_id
ORDER BY abs(move_points) DESC
LIMIT 5;